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LA Tech & the WAC

2010-09-02T06:51:00.000-07:00

Let's face it LA Tech fans, being in the WAC now is a liability & not the advantage it was a year ago compared to the Sunbelt.

Since 2001, LA Tech has been a member of the WAC. Many have questioned their membership as the conference was comprised of schools as west as Hawaii, San Jose and Fresno and north into Idaho. Meanwhile LA Tech remained a member, despite being all the way in Louisiana. That wouldn't be much different than Boston College being in the Big 12 or LSU being in the Pac-10.

Despite the high costs of travel for every single LA Tech sports program to fly to these WAC school locations, the WAC had something to offer: a better football conference.

Buy "better" is relative.

Since the inception of CUSA, LA Tech has wanted to gain membership. But each time CUSA expanded, they looked at other schools. They added a number of Texas schools such as TCU (now in the MWC), Rice, SMU and UTEP. CUSA also expanded north into West Virginia with Marshall and into Oklahoma with Tulsa. LA Tech never made the cut.

So LA Tech has had (2) real options:
* Remain in the WAC
* Join the Sunbelt

The answer of what to do has for years been easy: remain in the WAC, a superior conference to the Sunbelt, and hope that there is movement within CUSA and an invitation is extended. If LA Tech proved itself a worthy program while in the WAC, then CUSA might make a move.

But with the recent defections of Boise St., Nevada and Fresno St. to the Mountain West conference, the WAC is no longer a superior conference over the Sunbelt.

In the blink of an eye, the WAC went from light-years above the Sunbelt to quite far below.

So if you're LA Tech, perhaps it's time to make a move.

In joining the Sunbelt, LA Tech would immediately see the revenue benefits via their travel budget. Despite losing 3 programs though, the WAC still has a better TV contract than the Sunbelt. But for how long?

LA Tech wants to join CUSA, but CUSA has no need to expand now. So if your LA Tech, which home is better right now to prove your worthiness? You can prove yourself to be the top school in the CUSA footprint as a member of the Sunbelt, participating against other potential CUSA candidates like North Texas and Troy, along with others like Florida Atlantic, FIU, South Alabama, MTSU and WKU. Or you can stay in a league that is hoping to get FCS upgrades like Texas St., Montana, UC Davis, Portland St., and Sacramento St...as well as UTSA, a school yet to play a football game.

One thing is clear, the LA Tech administrators have some thinking to do.

BYU Crusades on It's Own to Take On Goliath (BCS)

2010-08-31T17:33:00.000-07:00

So now that it's official, BYU is leaving the Mountain West, we can look less at what it means to the WAC (RIP) and the Mountain West (ouch), and focus on what it means for BYU.

Going independent is a bold move. And we're fine to question the logic.

BYU has said that the reason for exploring (and now going forward with) independence, has been due to the low revenue numbers for the MWC TV deals. Perhaps that's a big factor. But it's clear that at some level, BYU is guilty of the sin of envy regarding the University of Utah. In a blink of an eye, as the Pac-16 plan with Texas fell apart, Utah was accepting it's Pac-10 invite. Meanwhile, BYU admins waited by the phone and never got as much as a wave by the Pac-10. Utah now stands to generate much more revenue than they have in the past. And BYU was set to get no revenue boost.

Note that with the Pac-12 being a BCS conference, they get a larger payday regardless of the TV contract. And the Mountain West has been on the cusp of a BCS autobid. Utah was leaving, sure...but they were being replaced with the top non-BCS program in football during this BCS evaluation period, Boise St. So on paper, replacing a top school like Utah with Boise St., and teaming them with BYU and TCU, made the MWC an even stronger conference; a conference that might have been awarded an autobid after next season.

And hopes for a MWC autobid are now over. It will take another long and strong run by it's members to prove a new sense of worthiness to the BCS gods. TCU and Boise St. will need some help by a 3rd MWC program to do some damage. Maybe that will come from one of the new additions, Fresno St. or Nevada. Or maybe one of the other programs will turn things around and build a strong program. UNLV has a new coach. SDSU has the recruiting advantage. Colorado St. a solid historical program back in the Sonny Lubick
days. Whomever it is, at least 1 of the other 8 MWC schools will need to improve to a much higher level.

But for BYU, their envy of Utah and greed for more TV money, might have hurt them.

BYU will participate as an independent. And they won't get any preferential BCS treatment like Notre Dame does.

So if BYU goes 10-1 in a season, their are no assurances that they will get a BCS invite. Meanwhile, that same record in the Mountain West would in most years assure them a spot. And with that spot comes the riches of the BCS.

For now, the only revenue boost will be from having it's own TV schedule. But how great is that advantage? BYU will have the help of ESPN, a big reason they've gone down this path.

But the Goliath that is the BCS will have an even bigger advantage over BYU than it will over Mountain West programs like TCU and Boise St. Don't be surprised in a few years if you see a 2 loss MWC team selected over 1 loss BYU team that was forced to offset 1 big game against an opponent like Texas, with a flurry of late season games against the likes of Idaho, SJSU, NMSU, LA Tech, Utah St as well as a Big Sky or MAC foe.

BYU has a challenge ahead of them. But they know what they're getting themselves into (we can only hope). Ultimately, BYU hopes to defeat the Goliath of the BCS, but now by taking control of it's destiny. BYU hopes to plant some seeds that will grow into an eventual Big 12 invitation and entrance into that BCS conference. And if things work out for them as an independent, the Big 12 might knock on their doors and take away the pain of being slighted by the Pac-10

BYU To Leave MWC for WCC - More WCC Expansion Coming?

2010-08-31T16:40:00.000-07:00

They waited until the deadline, but an official announcement is expected soon that BYU will join the WCC for all sports excluding football. The football program would participate as an independent.

The rationale for BYU leaving the MWC has publicly been their discontent with the current Mountain West television contracts. However, the MWC has been just on the cusp of gaining a BCS automatic berth, something that would greatly boost BYU football revenue. The conference lost Utah, but replaced them with Boise St., a school that has performed better than any non-BCS school during the BCS conference evaluation period. There was an argument to be made that the addition of Boise St. as a replacement for Utah made the conference even stronger.

Behind the scenes though, there has been speculation that Utah being so openly accepted by the Pac-10, and that schools immediate financial boost, while BYU was never even considered, was a big reason for the BYU drama. Hell hath no fury like an in-state rival scorned.

The move of BYU to the WCC could also put the WAC in even more of a tough spot. The conference has been expecting a $10 million payday via exit fees from Nevada and Fresno St., two schools that left the WAC for the MWC and ultimately caused BYU to pass on the WAC option called "The Project". But this same agreement created by BYU, which created the exit fees, seems to have been contingent on BYU joining the WAC. This one will likely make it to the courts as the WAC feels both schools owe the money, while the schools now have a stronger legal reason to decline making payments.

Meanwhile, the Mountain West now finds themselves at 10 schools. It's a comfortable number that will allow a 9 game conference schedule. But at this point, it might not be a shocker is the MWC expanded to 12. Utah St. is a candidate that could make up a part of the loss of Utah and BYU from the Utah market. Houston has been considered as it would give access to the conference to that market. CUSA member UTEP could be an option as well. Any moves by the MWC will likely be based on the effect of BYU's departure will have on the television contracts. So it's just as likely that no more MWC expansion will occur.

And then there is the clear winner...the West Coast Conference.

The WCC is now at 9 members with the BYU addition.

The WCC has considered expansion before with such schools as Pacific and Santa Barbara, as well as Seattle. It has been made clear though that the conference has only considered private/faith based schools that meet the conferences general profile.

The WCC has also hinted that if they expand, it will always be done to maintain a balanced membership: 8 schools or 10 schools. With the addition of BYU, there could be room for a 10th school now.

If further expansion were to happen, there are likely only 2 candidates that fit the basic criteria:
* faith based school
* western location
* metro DMA

Seattle University will be working hard to be invited. The school has tried already and been unsuccessful. But the Seattle market might be even more appealing now that Salt Lake City is in the mix. The addition of Seattle would give the WCC schools in Seattle, Portland, Spokane, Salt Lake City, Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego.

The other school that could fit the 10th spot would be Denver.

Denver has for long been out of place in the Sunbelt due to it's location. But there haven't been many options for Denver as they don't sponsor an FBS program. Had they, the WAC or MWC might have been options. Had they had FCS football, the Big Sky would be a fit.

With the addition of BYU, the WCC has a decision to make:

* Remain at 9 schools with BYU
* Expand to 10 with the Seattle market (Seattle University)
* Expand to 10 and push the WCC footprint further east into Denver
* The least likely option...add Seattle, Denver and add a 12th school such as Pacific

And while this happens, more tears are shed in the WAC offices as they cross their fingers that they can entice FCS schools like Montana, Sacramento St., Texas St. and UTSA to join. Ouch.

Reports: BYU to Remain in MWC, Nevada & Fresno Off the $5 Million Hook

2010-08-26T06:38:00.000-07:00

According to the Denver Post, BYU could announce this week that they will be remaining in the Mountain West Conference. Such a move would seemingly be the result of the Fresno St. and Nevada defections from the WAC to the Mountain West, moves that unstablized the WAC.

Since the WAC exit fee agreement that the then 8 WAC schools agreed to was contingent on BYU joining, it appears that both Nevada and Fresno St. might now be exempt from paying the $5 million exit fee. You can bet that the WAC will try to contest it though.

Temple to Conference USA?

2010-08-23T06:54:00.000-07:00

That's the rumor du jour. According to reports, Temple and another school will join CUSA for the 2011 season. Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com reported it today, as did a Tulane blog over a week ago. What makes this rumor tough to believe right now is that TCU is the other school to be included. Which begs us to question...why would TCU leave the MWC which is a stronger conference even without Utah or BYU than CUSA? Especially with Boise St. in the Mountain West now...the pre-season #3 football program. Time will tel, but a move to CUSA would be an upgrade for Temple over the MAC. Leaving the Atlantic 10 for CUSA would be an expensive move for Temple's non-football sports though.

Foiled WAC Coup Could be WCC Gain

2010-08-20T10:00:00.000-07:00

As I've covered in the past few articles, it's been turbulent times for the WAC and Mountain West conferences. The series of developments resembled that of a national government coup in a developing country. The WAC was on the verge of bringing in the strongest MWC school, despite excluding football, and about to deal a serious blow in the balance of power that had been tipped in the MWC's favor.

Utah St. assumed that the rest of the WAC-de-résistance were united in their coup on the Mountain West, and turned down the riches being offered by MWC leader Craig Thompson. But in the dead of the night, WAC compadres Frenso St. and Nevada left the WAC base-camp to defect to the Mountain West.

And with those 2 defections, BYU no longer had it's cushy political asylum in a united WACtopia.

Fast forward a few days and we're still waiting on BYU.

What are they to do?

BYU has (3) real options now:
1) remain in the MWC for all sports (since the MWC will not permit them to remain a member without football)
2) join the less than stable 6 team WAC for non-football sports, comprised of Idaho, Hawaii, SJSU, LA Tech and NMSU.
3) join the WCC for all-sports, and go independent for football

WCC commissioner Jamie Zaninovich has stated that the WCC would indeed be interested in bringing in BYU. With the WCC being comprised of Christian private schools, it would be a good general fit from a cultural standpoint. All the current WCC members reside in easily accessible western US markets such as Spokane (Gonzaga), Bay Area (St. Marys, USF, Santa Clara), Los Angeles (LMU & Pepperdine), San Diego & Portland.

And if the WCC were to expand to 9 schools with BYU, then it would make plenty of sense to add a 10th school for basketball scheduling purposes.

Denver has long sought a better home than the Sunbelt, but they have had few options. All of a sudden, the WCC would be a quite attractive potential option. The WCC has yet to make a big push for Denver at this point, but in adding the private school, they'd be gaining access to the Denver market along with the Salt Lake City, Utah addition through BYU.

Seattle has been seeking an invitation to the WCC since they upgraded back to Division 1. But the WCC has not looked to expand. So perhaps if the WCC did add BYU and sought a 10th school, Seattle might get the pick over Denver as they keep the footprint west of Spokane/Salt Lake City.

And then there is still the WAC.

BYU could still chose to join the WAC, even it there would be only 7 basketball members.

But the WAC could use the opportunity to bring in the other two regional schools seeking new homes: Seattle and Denver. While both schools are private and fall outside the typical state school culture of the WAC, both schools would give the WAC the Seattle and Denver markets...and a life vest to retain the NCAA basketball bid.

One thing is for sure: the WAC coup failed and the remaining 6 schools are trying to recover. They have very few options right now other than hoping for current FCS schools to upgrade, a process that will take years to happen. they can reach out to the east with schools such as UTSA that will be looking for a home soon. But the ideal schools, all FCS schools like Portland St., Sacramento St., UC Davis, Cal Poly and Montana are still years away from upgrading.

Until that happens, the WAC needs to do something. And while the idea of the WAC having to reach out to a Great West school or D1 independent like Seattle seemed like a stretch just a week ago, it's the reality now when it comes to available options.

Mountain West & CUSA Proposed "Championship Game"

2010-08-20T08:31:00.000-07:00

As the rumors continue to spin about a proposed CUSA/MWC merger to 23 schools, there's been more clarity that instead of this drastic option, that something else could be in the works.

Reports say CUSA and Mountain West officials have met to discuss the idea of having the conference football champions meet in a championship game. The winner of the game would then be granted access to a BCS bid.

The arrangement would not include a full merger but would promote certain scheduling concessions in sports like basketball.

The proposal would be a bi win for CUSA, which has been behind the Mountain West and the WAC of late when it comes to BCS bids. For the MWC, it's an opportunity for them to have a 50/50 chance at an automatic BCS bid rather than relying on the polls and where their top school finishes in a given year. It's not a stretch to envision a few years where the MWC could parlay this agreement into the automatic bid for 1 school and an at-large for another school. Such an example could be if TCU won the Mountain West and championship game with a 9-2 overall record and beat an 10-1 Boise St. team that finished in the top 12 in the BCS rankings.

CUSA & Mountain West Merger Chatter

2010-08-20T07:22:00.000-07:00

All eyes have been on the recent WAC/BYU/MWC shifts that had the WAC ready to add BYU for non-football sports which would have potentially caused Boise St. to stop it's move from the WAC to the MWC. Utah St. went as far as to reject a MWC invite thinking the 8 WAC schools would remain in solidarity and welcome BYU. Instead, Utah St. had to watch Fresno St. and Nevada accept MWC invitations just hours after pledging unity.

Now there is news that the Mountain West conference might take their moves a step further with a merger with Conference USA. There have even been hints to such by people such as TCU football coach Gary Patterson about an even bigger change in the landscape than we've seen this week with the MWC/WAC.

Such a move would put the conference at 22 to 23 schools, the largest conference in the NCAA.

After the WAC-16 school fiasco that led to the birth of the Mountain West, one might think this is exactly what the MWC schools would NOT want. And perhaps with the additions of Nevada and Fresno St., the merger talks might be put aside. Because it make sense for the MWC, at 8 members if BYU left, to consider stabilizing themselves with the CUSA-12.

If you're CUSA, it's also a means of protecting yourself in the future.

UCF and Memphis have long been rumored to be future Big East candidates. If there were a Big East split, even CUSA member ECU could leave. CUSA would have little leverage to attract replacements from the MWC at that point and would have to turn to the Sun Belt or FCS upgrades.

So if CUSA lost 2-3 members, and the MWC had merged with only 8 members, all of a sudden you're looking at a 16-17 school conference. And there's always the chance that the Big East could go after even more CUSA schools such as Houston. And while it seems unlikely, perhaps the Big 12 or Pac-10 might even one day look at current MWC schools.

While a merger might not seem to make the most sense now on paper, it is something that could have some benefit down the road to keep the members of both the MWC and CUSA conferences in a proactive position rather than having to react to future raids.

Utah St. Rejected MWC Invite Before Nevada & Fresno Accepted

2010-08-19T16:54:00.000-07:00

Here's an interesting tidbit brought to us by Utah St. Athletic Director, Scott Barnes. Apparently, before Fresno St. and Nevada received invitations from the Mountain West, Utah St. got the first and quickly rejected it. In their eyes, they assumed they'd be strong with 8 members and BYU joining for non-football sports. Utah St. never considered that other WAC schools would take the invitation. Ouch.

Nevada & Fresno St. to Join the MWC

2010-08-19T07:01:00.000-07:00

In case you missed it last night, Fresno St. and Nevada have agreed to join the Mountain West conference. There were reports yesterday from Andy Katz of ESPN that both schools had rejected invitations from the conference with the potential $5 million exit fee as a concern for both schools.

Many in the media, as well as fans, felt that with the potential BYU departure from the Mountain West, that the conference would be on the edge and forced to merge with the WAC. Such a move would have created a 16 school conference for football that would include a number of schools that the MWC would likely prefer to pass on.

By being proactive and bringing Nevada and Fresno St into the fold, the Mountian West membership now has a level of security with the recent loss of Utah and potential loss of BYU. And while some fans might have liked to see schools like New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego St. simply join the WAC, the moves to the MWC help form an unquestioned #2 conference in the region behind the Pac-10.

BYU now finds itself in a tough spot. They had looked to join the WAC as a home for it's no football sports. But with the losses of Nevada, Fresno St, and Boise St., the WAC membership now is only: Idaho, Hawaii, Utah St., New Mexico St., LA Tech and San Jose St. There's hardly the stability there for BYU to feel it's a safe home for non-football sports.

One interesting option for BYU might be to approach the WCC much harder about membership. The WCC is comprised of virtually all christian affiliated private schools. Adding BYU would give the WCC access to the Salt Lake City market and be quite a coup...if they chose to expand with another member.

The Mountain West conference membership now has the option add one more school to divide into divisions and add a conference championship game depending on what happens with BYU. If BYU does leave, the conference can remain stable at 10 schools.

Boise St.
Nevada
Fresno St.
UNLV
San Diego St.
* BYU
Wyoming
Colorado St.
Air Force
New Mexico
TCU

If BYU chose to remain and the conference sought a 12th school, Houston and UTEP are rumored to top the list.

Meanwhile, the WAC, now at only 6 schools, is forced to consider it's own options. They can look towards the Sunbelt, but would likely need to add multiple Texas schools in order to sway those schools from moving. North Texas is likely the top candidate to be approached, as could Arkansas St. If both schools joined, the WAC would be at 8 members. Expected FCS upgrades UTSA and Texas St. could also be targeted to bring the membership to 10. Montana is another FCS program that has been oft mentioned as a WAC candidate. But with the departures of Boise St., Nevada, and Fresno St., a move to the WAC might be less appealing to Montana. With the uncertainly of BYU, Montana could cross their fingers and hope for an invitation to the MWC should the conference find them more appealing than Houston, UTEP, Utah St., New Mexico St, and others.

BYU Closer to Going Football Independent & WAC Basketball

2010-08-18T10:14:00.000-07:00

It's been an interesting story so far and it's gotten some legs.

Looks like BYU could move to the WAC for all sports except football. BYU football would participate as an independent, ala Notre Dame, Army and Navy.

The loss of BYU would be a serious blow to the Mountain West Conference. ESPN is reporting that the conference is doing everything it can to retain BYU, including sweetening the TV revenue in their favor.

The Mountain West would be in a tough spot for membership as well as the loss of a powerful program like BYU. The conference would have lost Utah and BYU, two of the top programs in the conference. They did bring in Boise St., but they would hardly make up for the loss of both Utah schools. Some rumors have already started popping up about schools like Boise St. and San Diego St. returning to the WAC. One should not rule out the Mountain West exploring a replacement for BYU such as Nevada, Fresno St., or even another Texas school such as Houston to aid TCU.

More Memphis to Big East Rumors

2010-08-02T15:13:00.000-07:00

Matt Jones of KentuckySportsRadio and MyCN2 tweeted that Memphis to the Big East could happen. No facts to back anything up just yet, but with the Big East meetings happening right now, the timing would be right for some fire to this smoke. At this time, no expansion moves have been confirmed. With so many Big East admins making their desire for a 9th football member public, Memphis would certainly fit the bill as a 9th member.

Texas A&M fires Shot: $20 million in 2012 or We'll Leave

2010-07-29T13:59:00.000-07:00

Some comments by Texas A&M president R. Bowen Loftin, saying Texas A&M expects $20 million in 2012 or they might leave. In the piece by Brent Zwerneman, Loftin says that the main reason Texas A&M remained in the Big 12 and did not leave for the SEC was because of the $20 million annual revenue figure. If the Big 12 doesn't deliver, Texas A&M could revisit joining the SEC.

Thus far, the revenue numbers that were used to keep the Big 12 together were based on projections. Partner networks did pony up some early money as a show of good faith, and that money should be enough to cover the early years of the new Big 12 unity. But if the projections don't become reality, the Big 12 schools might consider moving again.

So what does that mean?

Texas A&M and Oklahoma had standing offers by the SEC which they rejected. We know Texas A&M was more interested in the SEC than the Pac-10, which would have included Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Oklahoma has publicly said they prefer to remain in a conference with Texas.

So if the revenue numbers don't match the projections, we could still see a split between Texas and Texas A&M. And for now, we can just assume Oklahoma wouldn't change their stance of remaining with Texas.

Despite the upcoming name change from Pac-10 to Pac-12, it's safe to assume that the west coast based conference would pursue Texas again if the Big 12 fell apart. And if that meant bringing Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St to form a Pac-16, the Pac-12 would likely ablige. The wrench in such an alignment would of course be if Texas A&M wanted to be part of the group. Texas Tech or Oklahoma St. would likely find themselves on the outside.

And if the Pac-12 took 4 schools from a Big 12 ready to fall apart, and the SEC brought in Texas A&M, the SEC might look for a 14th member. Potential targets for school number 14 (or even 16 depending on what type of moxy the SEC shows) would likely be ACC schools such as Virginia Tech, Florida St., Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson. Big East member West Virginia is another popular option. The SEC could also look at other Big 12 left-overs such as Missouri, which would push the SEC footprint into the St. Louis and Kansas City markets. Note that when it appeared the Big 12 would fall apart last month, the SEC expressed little interest in Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas or Kansas St.

Should the ACC need any replacements, Big East schools such as Syracuse, Rutgers, Uconn and Pitt would be likely targets. Syracuse and Rutgers remain popular candidates should the Big Ten expand to 14 or 16 schools. If this happened and the ACC were in need of 1 or two replacements, Uconn and Pitt would likely top the list. If the ACC needed even more replacements due to any long shot SEC raid, WVU and even Louisville could be on the radar.

Or course, this is all still speculation. But if the Big 12 doesn't deliver the projected per-school revenue, we could see all the wheels start spinning again.

2010 College Basketball Season Attendance by School

2010-07-28T16:01:00.001-07:00

It's a slow time of the year with only college basketball summer recruiting and preparation for the fall football season. So it's as good a time as any to take a look back at some college basketball numbers from last season. Not the wins and losses...but attendance by school. See where your school ranks.

More Big 10 into New York Rumblings

2010-07-25T11:46:00.000-07:00

Things have been slow on the conference realignment front of late, a much needed break after all the Big Ten/Pac-10/Big 12/MWC moves from last month.

But Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney has recently been speaking about the New York market and the importance of the D.C. to Boston corridor. He isn't saying that anything is set in stone to happen. But he is keeping us all aware that the 12-18 month window that the Big Ten set to determine it's conference expansion plans is not close to being up. and just because Nebraska was added ahead of that schedule, it doesn't mean the door is closed on future expansion to 13 or even 16 schools.

Notre Dame remains the schools the Big Ten would like to add. But to get them, it might require some other moves that could change the look of all the east coast conferences.

If the Big Ten reached out and took Syracuse and Rutgers, it's likely that the Big East would be crippled. The remaining 6 schools might seek other homes of even be forced to consider leaving the Big East to create something new with CUSA members such as UCF, Memphis and ECU. Because with one of the "glue schools" gone that keeps the basketball and football schools together in Syracuse, the 8 basketball schools might not be on board with bringing UCF and Memphis in for all-sports.

A northeast push by the Big Ten to form a 14-16 school conference with the likes of Syracuse and Rutgers, might be enough to cause the ACC to react by reaching out to Uconn and Pitt as well.

The basketball side of the Big East, if left at 8 members, might consider A10 schools like Xavier, Dayton and St. Louis.

And if the Big East were to lose the football side of it's membership, that might be exactly the type of scenario that would push Notre Dame to the Big Ten. Notre Dame would likely pass on a new all-sports conference made up of the remaining Big East football schools. And they'd likely pass on remaining in the all catholic Big East.

There is still 6-12 months for the Big Ten expansion window to be closed. And plenty could still happen.

WAC Considers Adding University of Denver

2010-06-30T11:31:00.000-07:00

Despite not having football, it looks like Denver has officially made it on the WAC radar.

With the departure of Boise St. to the Mountain West, the WAC finds itself in a position where it has only 8 schools. WAC commissioner Karl Benson did issue a statement that the league will remain at 8 members through the 2012 season. In adding Denver, it would give the conference 9 basketball members, and anther school in the WAC footprint. Nine schools might not seem ideal from a scheduling perspective, but it would give the conference some security in the future to retain their NCAA basketball automatic tournament bid if they were to lose more football schools over the next 7 years.

While instinct might make one think they need to expand with more football schools, that's not the case. There is less of a chance now that the WAC will be losing any schools. The Pac-10 is less likely to expand with future MWC schools, so the WAC is less likely to be raided for replacements.

The one scenario that could play out could be regarding LA Tech. Should CUSA have a spot and extend an invitation, LA Tech would likely accept it. It's also worth considering that LA Tech might one day join the Sunbelt if the quality of WAC football takes a step back with the departure of Boise St. Such a defection would leave the WAC at only 7 football/total members.

Rhode Island Out of the CAA for Football?

2010-06-26T10:36:00.000-07:00

Richmond Times-Dispatch reporter, John O'Conner reporting that URI will join the NEC in 2012.

According to O'Conner, URI would leave for the NEC, which get's an automatic playoff bid next season. URI has struggled for sometime in the CAA and A10 before that. The move would put them in a better regional footprint for football, a lower level of competition, and a better chance to make the playoffs.

The CAA has lost two football programs this past year. Northeastern dropped football after ironically being the very reason they were brought into the CAA in the first place a few years back. The CAA had 5 football playing members and needed a 6th in order to usurp football sponsorship from the A10. After Northeastern dropped football, Hofstra, another northeast located school, dropped the sport as well.

If URI leaves the CAA, it would be the 3rd school from the region to depart. The CAA is currently set to be a 12 team football conferences with the additions of ODU and Georgia St. Football members who are not all-sports CAA schools include URI, UMass, UNH, Maine, Richmond and Villanova.

If URI did indeed join the NEC, they would be the 10 member. Current NEC football members include Central Connecticut State, Albany, Wagner, Robert Morris, Bryant, Monmouth, Duquesne, Sacred Heart and St. Francis.

There had been rumblings about other northeast schools Maine and UNH considering other options than the CAA due to costs. But the NEC remains the only option, and both schools would prefer a stronger conference that included regional rival UMass, which is also in the CAA.

Despite Critics, Pac-10 Moves a Win

2010-06-17T21:27:00.000-07:00

Now that conference realignment has taken a break, you've seen a number of different media outlets give out their basic grades of all the moves, including this site.

Joe Schad and Rod Gilmore did a segment on ESPN in which they gave out all their "grades" via a "winner" and "loser" column (click for video). In their eyes, virtually everyone was a "winner" with the exception of the Pac-10, Boise St. and the Mountain West conference.

And there was Johnette Howard of ESPN who believes that the Pac-10 messed up and that their timing was wrong.

When you look at the actual moves made, it's hard to find any "losers".

The Pac-10 made a bold move by getting as far as they did in their courtship of Texas. Remember, the Pac-10 ideally wanted Texas and Colorado to expand to twelve schools. That combination would do more than just make the conference eligible for a revenue producing conference championship game. They'd be adding the Denver market as well as most of the state of Texas, a huge boost to the potential for starting their own television network.

But in order to get Texas, it meant the Pac-10 would have to make concessions. They'd have to include Texas A&M, which would still be appealing to the Pac-10 as the school is a reputable academic institution in the AAU. But that would be enough to get Texas. The Pac-10 needed to invite three other schools of Texas' choosing: Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

This is not to say that the Pac-10 would not be thrilled to have added all three Texas schools along with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., giving the conference that states markets as well.

But it was a long shot by the Pac-10 and the boldest move we've ever seen by a conference.

So when "Texas & Friends" ultimately passed on the Pac-10 to remain in the Big 12...no matter how thrilling the developments were for the Big 12 to remain together...it should not have ultimately come as a shock to anybody. The choice to remain in the Big 12 was simply a financial decision by Texas to reap the biggest reward (revenue).

So when the Pac-10 bold attempts to completely change the landscape of college sports fell short, they went with Plan B.

But Plan B was always the most realistic option: raid the Big 12 for Colorado, and add Utah from the Mountain West.

When a conference is able to get a school to leave it's own conference, where it is generating more revenue, and leave for what is a lower valued conference....that clearly makes the move a "win" for the new conference. And that's what happened. Colorado left the Big 12, where is was part of a much larger television contract, for the Pac-10. The hopes of the Pac-10 in creating a television network and adding the Denver market, was the carrot that enticed Colorado to make the move.

Utah joining the Pac-10 was a "gimme". Any school in a non-BCS conference would jump at a chance for an automatic BCS bid. But Utah also gives the Pac-10 access into the growing Utah markets including Salt Lake City. And now the Pac-10 has a gigantic presence in the western markets of Los Angeles (#2), San Francisco (#6), Phoenix (#12), Seattle (#13), Denver (#16), Portland (#22) and Salt Lake City (#31) for ten of it's schools. Tucson (#65) and Spokane (#75) for the final two schools.

Clearly, adding Denver along with Salt Lake City will have a positive effect on the Pac-10. Sure, it's not Texas. But even the Big Ten was shut out of the Texas sweepstakes, despite their $20 million per-school payouts.

Joe Schad of ESPN has done a heck of a job covering all the realignment moves, perhaps better than anyone in the media. But his opinion on the Pac-10 moves seems based solely on the conferences' failure to change the landscape by expanding to 16 schools with Texas. Had that option never reached the table, I'm sure he'd look at the Pac-10 raid on the Big 12 by luring Colorado as a bold move.

As for Howard's article, it seems like a case of someone too wrapped up in what almost was, and not focusing on what was attainable and actually completed.

Luckily, upon completing this article, I came across another ESPN.com writer who had a more simplistic view of the Pac-10 moves. In his piece, Ted Miller laid it out there: sure, the Pac-16 would have been great (in volume of change/impact to the conference)...but Colorado and Utah made sense.

Remember folks, this wasn't the Pac-10 adding WAC members San Jose St. and New Mexico St. What happened was that the Pac-10 added Colorado and Utah...and that makes them one of the many winners in this round of conference realignment.

Source: Utah to Pac-10, Announcement Could Come Wednesday

2010-06-15T22:38:00.000-07:00

A few conflicting reports already exist on the topic, but I posted on Twitter a few hours ago that Utah would indeed be the next member of the Pac-10. Sources claim that the school has met with Pac-10 official in California, and could announce as soon as Wednesday that they will be joining the current eleven school conference.

More details are expected on Wednesday.

Sources say that in adding Utah, the plan for the Pac-10 will be to bring both Utah and Colorado for the 2011 football season. The conference would then be permitted to host a conference championship game, as the NCAA currently requires conferences to have twelve members to do so.

There have been two different divisional alignment scenarios discussed. One would create true North/South divisions comprised of (North) Washington, Washington St., Oregon, Oregon St., Utah and Colorado & (South) Arizona, Arizona St., UCLA, USC, Cal and Stanford. However, sources are now saying that the divisional alignment might be setup that would split the California schools into separate divisions. The rumored divisions would include: (North) Washington, Washington St., Oregon, Oregon St., Cal, Stanford & (South) USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St., Utah and Colorado. You can bet the Cal & Stanford fans will be unhappy with that if it comes to be.

The loss of Utah from the Mountain West would be a big blow for the conference. Just a few days ago, it appeared as if in addition to adding Boise St., they'd potentially be in the position to add current BCS schools like Kansas, Kansas St., and Missouri. Boise St. will be a positive addition to the conference, but losing Utah might dampen the conferences hopes of gaining an automatic bid into the BCS, something that seemed like a lock with Utah and Boise St. in the conference together.

Upcoming Conference Expansion Talk on the Radio - Thursday

2010-06-15T00:00:00.000-07:00

I'll be rockin' the amplitude modulation again today...

THURSDAY, June 16:

WBGG - 970 AM
Pittsburgh, PA
5:15am PT
on the "Greg Linnelli show"

WNSR 560AM

Nashville, TN

3:25pm PT

on the Thom Abraham show

Past Calls:

Tuesday, June 8th

WQYK - 1010-AM

Tampa, FL

10am PT

on "The King David show"
Listen/Download

KXNO - 1460 AM

Des Moines, IA

12:30pm PT

on the "Murph & Andy Show"
Listen/Download

Mile High Sports Radio

Denver, CO

1:10 pm PT

on "Middays with Mac & Doog"

1430 AM TheBuzz

Tulsa, OK

2pm PT

on "THE BIG SHOW"
* Listen/Download

ESPN Orlando

WHBO-AM
2:30pm PT

on "Jerry Oneil show"

KPUG-AM

Bellingham, WA

3pm - 5:30pm

on "The Zone with Doug Lange and Mark Scholten"
Listen/Download

Wednesday, June 9th:

Fox Sports New Mexico - 1340 AM

Farmington, NM

8:30am PT

with "Steve Bornstein"

ESPN Omaha - 1620 the Zone

Omaha, NE

9:15am PT

on "The Shnick and Nick show"
Listen/Download

WDAY-970 AM

11:10am PT

Fargo, ND

with my pal Jeff Kolpack

ESPN Sioux Falls

Sioux Falls, SD

1:10pm PT

on "Brad Petersons show"

ESPN Houston

Houston, TX

2:30pm PT

on "Carl Dukes show"
Listen/Download

ESPN Hawaii

Hilo, HI

2:15pm PT

on "Josh Pacheco show"

WLXG - 1300AM ESPN Kentucky

Lexington, KY

3:00pm PT

on with Mike Cameron

ESPN 1230 AM

Bakersfield, CA

6:10pm PT

with Jake Stevens

THURSDAY, June 10th:

WBGG - 970 AM

Pittsburgh, PA

5:35am PT

on the "Greg Linnelli show"

WNSP - 105.5 FM

Mobile, AL

6:35am PT

on the "Lee Shirvanian show"

SportsRadio 610 AM

Houston, TX

7:30am PT

with Marc Vandermeer, former voice of the UMass Minutemen while I was at UMass
Listen/Download

WHBQ - 560 AM

Memphis, TN

9:45am PT

on Greg Gastons show
Listen/Download

Mile High - 1510 AM

Denver, CO

11:20am PT

with Gil Whiteley

WSFZ - SuperSport 930 AM

Jackson, MS

2:30pm PT

on Ben Ingrams show
* Listen/Download

KJR - 950 AM

Seattle, WA

7:37pm PT
Listen/Download

FRIDAY, June 11:

XTRA Sports 1360 AM

San Diego, CA

9:40am PT
with Chris Ello
Listen/Download

KXNO - 1460 AM

Des Moines, IA

1:05pm PT

on the "Murph & Andy Show"
Listen/Download

ESPN Hawaii

Hilo, HI

1:30pm PT

on "Josh Pacheco show"

KZNE - The Zone 1140 AM

College Station, TX

2:30pm PT

on "Chip Howard show"
Listen/Download

SATURDAY:

WMBS AM

Uniontown, PA

8:30am PT

Monday, June 14th:

ESPN Triangle - 620 AM The Buzz

5:10am PT

Raleigh, NC

with Tim Hall

WJOX 94.5 FM

6:00am PT

Birmingham, AL

on The Opening Drive
Listen/Download

AM 1300 - The Zone "The Longhorn Station"

Austin, TX

6:30am PT

on Wake-Up Call w/Jon Madani & Ahmad Brooks

WKRD - 790 AM

Louisville, KY

12:30 pm PT

on "Afternoon Underdogs"

ESPN 1230 AM

Bakersfield, CA

6:10pm PT

with Jake Stevens

TUESDAY, June 15th

ESPN Radio 600 AM

Gainesville, FL

6:15am PT

with Brady Ackerman

WBBW

ESPN 1240

Youngstown, OH

1:15pm PT

with Cappy

WEDNESDAY, June 16:

WNSP - 105.5 FM

Mobile, AL

6:35am PT

on the "Lee Shirvanian show"

Conference Realignment Hits the Brakes With Logical Moves Made

2010-06-14T18:46:00.000-07:00

When the news first hit that Texas, along with Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St were considering a move to the Pac-10, the conference landscape shifts seemed plentiful. A sixteen school Pac-10 might be enough to trigger the Big Ten to follow suit, after their expansion to twelve with Nebraska. The SEC got involved, as Texas A&M sought refuge from the Pac-10 in that conference...which would have likely triggered the SEC to expand with a 14th school. Meanwhile, you have what appeared to be five Big 12 schools about to be left behind. The Big East had it's eyes on them as Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St. and Iowa St. could grow the football conference to twelve schools from the current eight, and the basketball membership to twenty schools. Even the Mountain West, fresh off their addition of Boise St. as the tenth member, was watching how things played out with hopes on grabbing Kansas, Kansas St. and Missouri. And while the more powerful conferences were all set to make moves, even CUSA was sitting back, prepared to invite Baylor and Iowa St. if they were left behind.

When all was said and done, it was very likely that we'd have membership changes in many conferences that would be pushing us to the brink of a new era of "Super Conferences".

We could have seen:
Pac-10 grow from 10 to 16
Big Ten grow from 10 to 16
SEC grow from 12 to 14
Big East grow from 8/16 to 12/20
In other scenarios, we could have seen the Mountain West grow from 9 to 14 and CUSA grow from 12 to 14, or even the 5 remaining Big 12 schools regroup and expand

And then a combination of sanity and big dollar signs came into play, putting the brakes on such drastic movement.

Today's announcement by Texas, that it will remain in a ten school Big 12, along with the Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., was the result of an apparent last ditch effort by Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe to keep the conference alive. Schools will all make more money, and the power brokers like Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M will make as much if not more than the SEC schools.

The quick brakes put on expansion resulting in what will likely be a total of (4) moves this time around. And all 4 of these moves seem to make the most sense.

Nebraska to Big Ten:
The Cornhuskers leave the Big 12 - North, the division that has seemed to be the forgotten half of the Big 12 family. They join the Big Ten, where they already fit into much of the existing culture that comprises that conference. Geographically, they remain on the fridge, but this time to the west instead of the north in a Texas-centric conference. The revenue numbers will be a boost for Nebraska compared to the previous television contract, and on par with the revenue the new "Big 12 Minus 2" will get.

But the move made sense for the Big Ten. It improves the quality of their football product. It gives them a 12th school and a conference championship game. It improves their revenue stream. That's what the Big Ten wanted and that's what it got. Sure, Texas and Notre Dame were the top choices, but neither school was ever a realistic candidate to join the Big Ten this round of expansion.

Colorado to Pac-10:
In the 1990's, the Pac-10 was interested in expanding to 12 schools with Colorado and Texas. Colorado has always been on the Pac-10 radar. But it wasn't until now that the Pac-10 made it's move. With a goal of launching it's own television network, adding the Denver market was crucial in obtaining potential cable subscribers. Texas remained an option and the Pac-10 made a bold attempt to land the big fish. Texas would not join the Pac-10 by itself, so the conference conceded enough to allow 4 other schools join with them: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

Next Pac-10 Member?

The move to a Pac-16 was done for one reason: to get Texas. With Texas and the rest of the Big 12 schools remaining, it puts the Pac-10 where it was in the beginning: their best expansion options remain Colorado and Utah.

The Pac-10 has achieved it's goal of getting the Denver market for their TV deal. And they will likely go forward with an invitation to Utah, to secure the Salt Lake City market.

Adding Colorado and eventually Utah to form a Pac-12 might not be as impacting as adding Texas & friends. But the move is exactly what everyone knew the Pac-10 needed to do to expand. Kudos for commissioner Larry Scott for thinking outside the box with the Texas invitations. He came close to pulling off the biggest coup in college sports. But by "falling short", he still is giving the conference everything it needs and could realistically get: Denver market (and likely Salt Lake City market), and 12 schools for a conference championship game.

Boise St. to the Mountain West
This is a move we've seen coming for some time. The Mountain West has needed Boise St. to join in their attempt to gain a BCS automatic bid.

While potentially losing Utah would stunt those plans, there is still hope. The MWC is just on the cusp of gaining the bid. And one can hope that with this last round of expansion being completed (or almost complete) and the moves made based on logic, that the BCS will do the logical thing and reward the Mountain West for their years of success. Losing Utah will hurt...but they'd be replacing them with arguably the best of the non-BCS schools.

So as the expansion push seems to come to an end this round, it has been very much like a typical spring: the news or drastic change came in like a lion, but ultimately there were 3-4 moves that were quiet like a lamb in comparison.

Texas Declines Pac-10 Invitation, Big 12 to Remain

2010-06-14T16:00:00.000-07:00

So the last ditch effort by Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe seems to have been successful.

Texas has declined an invitation to join the Pac-10, which will also result in the other 4 invitations (Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St) being declined as well.

After the developments over the past few days, this seemed more improbable a Hail Mary than the 76 yard 1994 pass from Colorado's Kordell Stewart to Michael Westbrook to beat Michigan. This time, it wasn't Michigan who lost... it was the Pac-10 and perhaps the Big Ten's future expansion plans.

Just two days ago, when Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott was hand delivering invitations to these 5 schools, it seemed that the Pac-16 was days away from being announced. Texas was the kingpin, and their decision would determine where followers Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St would be.

But then Texas A&M showed some good ole' Texas pride. Stepping outside the shadow of the University of Texas, Texas A&M spoke with the SEC about potentially joining that conference. The result would be an end to the historic rivalries with schools such as Texas and Texas Tech, along with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

For Texas, the Pac-10 scenario still made sense. They'd generate more money via a Pac-10 network that would be in every large western market. They'd maintain their rivalries with 3 other Big 12 south schools in the process.

The threat was that Texas A&M would now be in the SEC, a lone member from the Lone Stat state that could possibly have a recruiting advantage over the new Pac-10 schools.

But it was the money that ultimately caused a shift in the Texas mindset.

The last ditch effort by Beebe would keep the current revenue distribution in place, one which favors Texas. And this revenue would be split by 10 schools, not by 12.

But there was also new money that Beebe brought to the table.

It's likely that Fox decided it's best interests were to remain a part of the Big 12 as it is now and potentially remain a partner with the Pac-10 either as a partner like they are now or perhaps with a new TV network. such a move would allow the network to encompass all 11 or 12 Pac-10 markets as well as the current 10 for the Big 12. ~~Had ESPN ponied up the money for a new TV deal, it's rationale perhaps was fear of a Fox financed Pac-10 Network.~~

The new TV deal is estimated to be worth $17 million per school, which is what the SEC schools currently make.

But the Big 12 will also allow schools to have their own networks. So the long rumored "Longhorn Network" can come to be, resulting in another estimated $5-7 million for Texas.

When all is said and done, Texas expects to generate around $20 to $22 million dollars per season in the new "Big 12 minus 2".

One rumor that was put to rest was that the Big 12 would expand with BYU and Air Force, bringing it's membership back to 12. But such a scenario would simply add two more mouths to feed, and bringing in schools that would generate less money than Nebraska and Colorado.

What's Next for the Pac-10 & Mountain West?

With the Big 12 seemingly remaining together, it looks like the conference shifts will come to a halt at the higher levels of FBS.

Utah is expected to be invited now to the Pac-10 as it's 12th members. This will give the Pac-10 the necessary number of schools to host a conference championship game for football. It will also provide them with the Salt Lake City market, something that will be a big help in launching the Pac-10 network. In addition to being comprised by all the "Big State U's" from California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Colorado and Utah, the Pac-10 network will focus on some of the top media markets including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Denver and then Salt Lake City.

Fox is expected to be the primary target for a television partner to form a Pac-10 television network.

The Mountain West conference must have seen this coming. By adding Boise St., the conference will remain at equal power should Utah leave. Assuming the BYU & Air Force to the Big 12 rumors are completely put to rest, the Mountain West should weather the storm.

The rest of the conferences too should remain intact. With no power options out west, the Pac-10 should remain at 12 if Utah is invited.

The wildcard will now be the Big Ten. If they remain at 12, all things remain the same. If they opt to expand to 14 or 16, the conference realignment wrecking ball will come out, with conferences like the Big East the likely target. Especially since we can expect even more significant exit penalties in the Big 12 now (for schools like Missouri who wanted a Big Ten invite).

What's Next for the Remains of the Big 12: A Look at Some Options

2010-06-13T17:18:00.000-07:00

It started with some flirtation by Nebraska and Missouri with the Big Ten. And when step-brother, Nebraska, seemed like they could actually leave the Big 12, big brother Texas started to make some noise...by publicly considering an offer by the Pac-10 to join, a scenario that would allow them to bring their immediate siblings, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Meanwhile, the almost forgotten family member, Colorado, didn't like the infighting and decided to leave on it's own..the first move in the demise of the once proud Big 12 family.

When Colorado accepted an invitation to the Pac-10, the wrecking ball started swinging. A day later, Nebraska made it official, and accepted an invitation to the Big Ten. With that move, it appears that Texas hit the detonation button and put an end to the Big 12. On Tuesday, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. are expected to accept invitations to the Pac-10. Texas A&M might follow, but at the time of this article, is still considering the SEC as an option.

And assuming on Tuesday, that the four Big 12 schools do opt for the Pac-10, (and Texas A&M opts for the Pac-10 or SEC) this means that the once seemingly happy family of 12 schools in the Big 12 is no more. Even a last ditch effort by the SEC to convince Texas, Oklahoma & Oklahoma St. would result in the same thing...as all that will remain will be fond memories, classic football battles on ESPN classic...and 5 schools left to wonder what is next for them.

Missouri got all dressed up for the Big Ten, putting on it's prettiest dress and makeup. But for now, the Big Ten has opted to to invite only Nebraska. Missouri can only hope that as things play out, that the Big Ten will come back to Missouri with an invite...whether it's weeks, months, or years down the road.

Kansas remains an option for the #16 spot in the Pac-10, only if Texas A&M goes the bold route of leaving it's Texas brethren by opting for the SEC. Should they do such, my sources confirm Kansas and Utah to be the top candidates for that final spot, as they would provide access to the Kansas City or Salt Lake City markets for a potential new Pac-10 television network. Unfortunately for Kansas, my same sources have states the Utah might be the front-runner.

And then there are Baylor, Iowa St., and Kansas St. All three sit in the same position, a position that at this time, Kansas & Missouri are in as well: schools from a BCS conference that could soon be without a home.

So what happens next for the 5 left-over Big 12 schools if 5 of the remaining 10 schools do leave this week?

Losing the long rivalries they've had with the departing seven Big 12 schools will be tough to swallow. But when you look at the future of these schools, there is some sign of optimism: all five schools will likely end up in a better situation than the majority of FBS schools. It might not seem that way right now as their fans feel the bitterness of being slighted by the Big Ten and Pac-10. But the future holds a number of scenarios that could at least take away some of the pain and help these programs develop new rivalries and continue to generate television revenue.

So let's take a look at some of the scenarios:

Big 12 Regroups:
You've got five schools left behind. In times of crisis, the instinct is to run and for each school to fend for themself. But there is another option: to regroup by courting some of the best from the Mountain West, CUSA and even the Big East.

There are a number of schools either in, or on the fringes of the current Big 12 footprint, that when combined with the remaining five, could make for a dynamic and profitable conference. Make no mistake, the available options are not as strong as departing schools like Nebraska and Texas. But the quality is there to rebuild the Big 12 conference that would remain superior by most standards to both the Mountain West and Big East in regards to football and on the same page in basketball.

Markets would certainly be a factor in deciding what schools to pursue, as this new group would battle with the Pac-10 and others for viewership.

Some of the top options would include Utah, BYU, TCU, New Mexico and UNLV of the Mountain West. In CUSA, you have schools like Houston, UTEP, Memphis and SMU. And in the Big East, you have schools like Louisville, Cincinnati and WVU who might see the benefit of such an alignment.

When looking at the current Mountain West, Big East (football), and CUSA conferences, there is an argument to be made that the following lineup could be stronger on the field, court, and in the revenue streams:

Potential Format:
East: Louisville, Memphis, Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.,
West: Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Baylor, TCU, Houston

Television Markets:
Kansas City (#32), St. Louis (#21), Houston (#10), Albuquerque (#44), Salt Lake City (#31), Louisville (#49), Dallas-Ft. Worth (#5), Memphis (#50)

Benefits:
* Would allow the five Big 12 schools to remain together
* Would have two geographically fit divisions
* Would maintain some current Big 12 markets and add new DMAs for a television deal

The Mountain West Option:
When the Mountain West expanded to 10 on Friday with the addition of Boise St., it did open some eyes regarding the plans of the potential remaining Big 12 schools. The move to add Boise St. was simply to improve the conference, specifically it's chances of gaining an automatic BCS bid. While adding Big 12 schools might have done that also, none have had the level of success on the field of Boise St., not to mention the BCS criteria boost that Boise St. provides.

The Mountain West now has the option to remain at 10, or consider expansion options that could allow them to grow to 12, 14 or perhaps more.

If they chose to expand to 12, the easiest move would be to simply add Kansas and Kansas St, if both were available. Baylor remains a strong option and would give the conference another presence in the state of Texas (along with TCU).

And perhaps the boldest move would be to invite all five Big 12 schools, along with another school, to expand to 16.

Some options for the Mountain West:
12 schools: add Kansas and Kansas St.
12 schools: add Kansas and Baylor
14 schools: add Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor and Missouri
14 schools: add Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., and Missouri
16 schools: add Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Missouri, Houston, Memphis
16 schools: add Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., Missouri, Houston, Nevada

Potential Format (16 schools):
East: Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor, TCU, Houston, New Mexico
West: Boise St., UNLV, SDSU, Utah, BYU, Wyoming, Colorado St., Air Force

New Potential Markets of Worth for Mountain West:

Kansas City (#32), St. Louis (#21), Houston (#10)

Benefits for Mountain West:
* The Mountain West would be doing it's part to keep up with the Pac-16 in this scenario.
* New television markets for the Mountain West could increase their current (and low ranked) television deal

Benefits for the Big 12 schools:
* If all 5 schools were included, and it's doubtful that would happen, they'd all remain in a BCS conference and retain their existing rivalries.

Due to the restrictions in their current television contract, the best scenario for the Mountain West would likely be to expand to only 12 schools with Kansas and Missouri or Baylor, although Kansas State would likely be the option due to Kansas politicians wanting the schools to remain together.

The Big East Option:
Depending on what the future holds for the Big Ten and their expansion plans, the Big East could very well have a quite different look a year from now.

Schools such as Syracuse and Rutgers remain on the Big Ten radar, in that conferences attempt to gain further penetration into the population rich New York and New Jersey television markets. The Big Ten Network could certainly use those markets to generate more revenue with it's cable subscriber base. And if the ACC lost any schools (SEC could have interest in Florida St., Georgia Tech, Clemson or Miami), the Big East would certainly be the target for the ACC to find replacements. Some believe, including former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, that we'll eventually see more conferences grow to 14 to 16 schools. So the ACC might even look towards the Big East to expand on it's own, before the SEC makes any moves of it's own. As Syracuse and Rutgers remain high candidates for the Big Ten, it would seem that the ACC targets would likely be UConn, Pittsburgh, WVU and Louisville in that order.

So if you're the Big East, you're relieved that the first wave of conference realignment happened without losing any of your eight schools.

But that doesn't mean that the Big East won't soon enough find itself vulnerable.

A previous piece on CollegeSportsInfo.com mentioned how the Big East is being proactive enough this time around to consider various scenarios where they could protect themselves from losing multiple schools, something that almost caused the conference to split in 2003 when it last happened.

One of the scenarios that has been partially discussed within the Big East offices, includes expanding to a 12 football school/20 all-sports conference by adding Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., and Missouri. Basketball fans would drool over the idea of so many tradition rich basketball schools all under the same umbrella.

The conference would likely be split into two (10) school divisions with a limited number of cross division conference games. But the carrot of having so many quality schools participate in the Big East tournament would make that single event a premiere spectacle that all eyes would be on.

For the football side of the issue, such an expansion would provide a number of advantages to the current eight Big East football schools.

Potential Format (20 schools):

East: * Providence, UConn, Syracuse, * St. Johns, * Seton Hall, Rutgers, * Villanova, Pittsburgh, * Georgetown, USF

West: WVU, Cincinnati, Louisville, * Notre Dame, * DePaul, * Marquette, Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.

Benefits:

* Better quality football product than current Big East
* Protection in the event that current Big East schools leave the conference for the Big Ten, ACC or even SEC (WVU might be the only risk to depart for the SEC).
* As a 20 team conference with 8 non-football members, the conference would retain it's strong basketball product in the event that even 6 football schools ever left. Other candidates such as Memphis, UCF and ECU could be brought in as replacements should there be a Big Ten or ACC raid.

The Big East Option: Split
One option that the remaining Big 12 schools could choose, and has been discussed by the Big East, could come from a drastic change to the existing Big East. With the potential now to court 4-5 BCS caliber schools, the Big East could use the collapse of the Big 12 to create a 12-16 school all-sports conference of it's own. In doing so, they would lose the 8 non-football members and the markets they bring. But they would be making a bold move to drop the stigma of being one of the weaker football conferences with only 8 schools.

It's important to note that this scenario has much less support in the Big East offices than the 12/20 option, with primary concerns being which schools might leave for other conferences. Losing schools such as Syracuse, considered the glue that keeps the basketball schools and football schools together, could be a major blow to the current union of 16 schools. For as proactive as the Big East claims to be, it seems that they will almost have to wait to see what happens with the Big Ten before moving forward with any type of split.

Such a scenario that did involve a split, could look like:

Potential format (12 schools):
East: Syracuse, Uconn, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, USF
West: Cincinnati, Louisville, Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.

Benefits:
* primarily the same as the 20 school big East scenario, but would serve as an all-sports conference, attempting to retain the BCS autobid, while providing an upgraded football product.

New Potential Markets of Worth for Big East:

Kansas City (#32), St. Louis (#21), Houston (#10)

Potential format (16 schools):

East: Syracuse, Uconn, Rutgers, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati, UCF, USF

West: Louisville, Memphis, Missouri, Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor, Houston

Benefits:

* primarily the same as the 12 school Big East scenario, but would serve as an all-sports conference, attempting to retain the BCS autobid, while providing an upgraded football product.

* Would also provide the Big East with new media markets

New Potential Markets of Worth for Big East:

Kansas City (#32), St. Louis (#21), Houston (#10), Orlando (#19), Memphis (#50)

These are just a few of the scenarios that could take place. There are plenty more that could come to fruition, with the remaining five Big 12 schools splitting up for different homes. Missouri might be on deck for a Big Ten invitation, or perhaps one from the Big East on it's own. Kansas might still find a way into the Pac-10 if Texas A&M doesn't make that move (although my sources claim that Utah might have the advantage at this time). ACC administrators might even have some interest in bringing Kansas into their historic basketball conference, despite the awkward geography. Perhaps political pressure in Iowa would bring Iowa St. to the Big Ten, although it remains the longest of shots. And while Baylor was left out of the Pac-10 migration by three of it's Texas partner schools, perhaps they seek a spot in the Mountain West or CUSA without the other four Big 12 schools left behind.

These five Big 12 schools and their fan bases need to find some optimism, as difficult as that may be. While none of the detailed scenarios presented above seem to be at the same level of the Big 12 circa 1996-2009 , there remains hope: in all these scenarios, it is likely that the football product would at least remain worthy of a conference BCS automatic bid. And one could argue that in some of the scenarios, the basketball conference might even be better with the loss of Colorado, Nebraska and Texas Tech.

For now, we wait. And see what happens to the forgotten children in the once happy Big 12 family.

Big 12 Weekend Updates: Big 12 Unity Plan, Texas A&M, SEC, Pac-16 Invitations

2010-06-12T18:54:00.000-07:00

Big 12 (minus 2) to Remain?
Perhaps the most interesting news thus far is Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe making a push to keep the remaining ten Big 12 schools together. With promises of a new TV contract with a $17 million per year payout, along with flexibility for individual schools to create their own networks (Longhorn Network), the plna reportedly has Texas at least listening.

This begs to question: why wasn't this opportunity presented 3-4 weeks ago when Nebraska was first considering the Big Ten or at least after Texas had conversations with the Pac-10. The answer is that desperate times call for desperate measures. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the potential departing schools like Texas did not do their own homework prior to the recent Beebe plan.

The Big 12 would also be two schools short of the required number to host a conference championship game. Multiple sources say the Big 12 would petition the the NCAA to allow them to have a championship game. However, there is already a precedent. Upon expanding to 11 schools in 2004, the ACC petitioned the NCAA with a similar request and was rejected. Just a few months ago, the Pac-10 discussed the same option with the NCAA but ultimately felt it would be a lost cause if they made an official request. If the Big 12 were given a waiver on the existing rule, you can bet that it would be met with resistance by conferences like the ACC who expanded to 12 because they were rejected. Other 12 school conferences like the SEC, CUSA, and now Big Ten might do the same.

Pac-10 Invitations:

It's a busy weekend for the Pac-10 and commissioner Larry Scott, and deputy commissioner Kevin Weiberg. Both flew to Oklahoma today to meet with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. and extend the official invitations to join the conference. Oklahoma will hold it's Board of Regents meetings on Wednesday to make a decision. Oklahoma St. has yet to schedule a Board of Regents meeting at the time of this article, but have "until Monday to give notice, if they also intend to meet Wednesday".

Scott and Weiberg will be in Texas on Sunday to extend the official invitations to Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech.

The Texas Board of Regents will meet on Tuesday morning to discuss their intentions. Texas Tech regents will meet on Tuesday as well.

Sources have reported that Texas and Texas A&M are likely to accept the invitations.Oklahoma seems intent on remaining with Texas, whichever path the Longhorns choose. Thus far, reports claim Oklahoma St. will likely remain with Texas and Oklahoma, putting the Pac-10 at 15 schools.

Texas A&M: SEC? Pac-10?
Texas A&M has been the wildcard thus far.

SEC commissioner Mike Slive traveled to College Station, TX to meet with Texas A&M. A formal invitation was not expected to be delivered at the time of this article.

Texas A&M reportedly has the regent votes to approve a move to the SEC, if invited. Once a formal invitation arrives, Texas A&M will need to decide if their future is best suited in the SEC, or if it is with it's Big 12 rivals Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St., should all four of those schools depart for the Pac-10.

All signs seem to point to the Big 12 breaking up and these 4 schools moving to the Pac-10. But until that is official, nobody should count out Mike Slive and the SEC to try to pull a major coup. The top schools of interest to the SEC are actually Texas and Oklahoma, not Texas A&M. If the SEC put together a last ditch effort that was appealing enough to Texas and Oklahoma, the SEC would be a force with Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

If the SEC did expand with Texas A&M, there remains a strong chance that the conference remains at thirteen schools. Reports claim that the SEC has no interest in ACC schools such as Florida St., Miami, Clemson and Georgia Tech. The same reports claim that Kansas is not an option and while there is interest in Virginia Tech, that the SEC does not feel that Virginia Tech would leave the ACC and their growing rivalry with Virginia.. When looking back at how much work was put in place by the Virginia government to get Virginia Tech in the ACC in 2003, it's easy to see why they might choose to remain.

If the SEC opted to formally invite Texas A&M, a decision is expected some time next week.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. will likely have made their decisions as well by the end of next week: join the Pac-10, remain in a ten school Big 12, or pursue membership in the SEC.

Conference Realignment Grid Updates

2010-06-11T14:19:00.000-07:00

Certainly a busy week already with movement by Colorado, Nebraska & Boise St....with even more to come Tuesday. Some early updates already to the Conference Realignment Grid with more to come.